"Every perception is to some degree an act of creation, and every act of memory is to some degree an act of imagination."

-- Gerald Edelman, Second Nature: Brain Science and Human Knowledge
The Technology War2 The Technology WarThe Technology WarChapter 7: US-China Relations and Wars2020-10-18JournalThe United States appears now to have greater technology abilities overall, though it varies by type of technology and the US is losing its lead.  For example, while the US is ahead in advanced AI development, it is behind in 5G.  As an imperfect reflection of this lead the market capitalizations of US tech companies in total are about twice the size of China’s with China’s share rising faster than America’s share.  This calculation understates China’s relative strength because it doesn’t include some of the big private companies (like Huawei and Ant Financial) and the non-company (i.e., government) technology developments, which are larger in China than they are in the United States.  Today the largest public Chinese tech companies (Alibaba and Tencent) are already the fifth and seventh largest technology companies in the world, right behind some of the largest US “FAAMG” stocks.  Some of the most important technology areas are being led by the Chinese.  For example, 40% of the world’s largest civilian supercomputers are now in China, China is leading the 5G race, and it is leading in some dimensions of the AI/big data race and some dimensions of the quantum computing/encryption/communications race.  Similar leads in other technologies exist, such as in fintech where the dollar volume of e-commerce transactions and mobile-based payments in China is the highest in the world and well ahead of that in the US.  There are of course technologies that I, and even our most informed intelligence services, don’t know about that are being developed in secret. Continue reading…