"Every perception is to some degree an act of creation, and every act of memory is to some degree an act of imagination."

-- Gerald Edelman, Second Nature: Brain Science and Human Knowledge
4 Chapter 7: US-China Relations and WarsThe Positions the Americans and Chinese Are InChapter 7: US-China Relations and Wars2020-10-18JournalWhile I am primarily focusing on US-China relations in this chapter, the game we and global policy makers are playing is like a multidimensional chess game that requires each player to consider the many positions and possible moves of a number of key players (i.e., countries) that are also playing the game, with each of these players having a wide range of considerations (economic, political, military, etc.) that they have to weigh to make their moves well.  For example, the relevant other players that are now in this multidimensional game include Russia, Japan, India, other Asian countries, Australia, and European countries, and all of them have many considerations and constituents that will determine their moves.  From playing the game I play—i.e., global macro investing—I know how complicated it is to simultaneously consider all that is relevant in order to make winning decisions.  I also know that what I do is not as complicated as what those in the seats of power do and I know that I don’t have access to information that is as good as what they have, so it would be arrogant for me to think I know better than they do about what’s going on and how to best handle it.  For those reasons I am offering my views with humility.  With that equivocation I will tell you how I see the US-China relationship and the world setting in light of these wars, and I will be brutally honest. Continue reading…