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4 The Technology WarThe Geopolitical WarThe Technology WarChapter 7: US-China Relations and Wars2020-10-18Journal
What would a worsening of the tech war look like?
Still, the United States has a technology lead (though it’s shrinking fast). As of result, as of now the Chinese have great dependencies on imported technologies from both the US and non-US sources that the US can influence. This creates a great vulnerability for China, which creates a great weapon for the United States. It most obviously exists in advanced semiconductors, though it exists in other technologies as well. The dynamic with the world’s leading chip maker—Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which provides the Chinese and the world with needed chips and which can be influenced by the United States—is one of many interesting dynamics to watch. There are many such Chinese technology imports that are essential for China’s well-being, and much fewer American imports from China that are essential for the United States’ well-being. If the United States shuts off Chinese access to essential technologies that would signal a major step up in war risks. On the other hand, if events continue to transpire as they have been transpiring, China will be much more independent and in a much stronger position than the United States technologically in 5-10 years, at which time we will see these technologies much more decoupled.