6 The Capital War6 The Capital War8 The Capital War8 The Capital WarThe Capital WarChapter 7: US-China Relations and Wars2020-10-18Journal8 The Capital War6 The Capital War
History has shown that whenever currencies are not desired they are sold off and devalued with the capital finding other investments (e.g., gold, silver, stocks, property, etc.) to go into, so there is no need to have an attractive alternative foreign currency market to go into for the devaluation of a currency to occur. In other words the US could see its reserve currency status reduced without there being an alternative reserve currency to go into.
Without the US disrupting China’s currency and capital markets they will likely develop quickly and increasingly compete with the US currency and credit markets. You won’t see this all at once, but you will see it evolve that way at a shockingly fast pace over the next 5-10 years. As shown in the Dutch, British, and US cases that development is consistent with the natural arc of things. Also, the fundamentals are in place for that to happen if the Chinese continue to run sound policies and develop their markets well. There is a lot of potential for Chinese capital markets, the RMB, and RMB-denominated debt to grow in importance because it is so underinvested in relative to its fundamentals. For example: