"Every perception is to some degree an act of creation, and every act of memory is to some degree an act of imagination."

-- Gerald Edelman, Second Nature: Brain Science and Human Knowledge
6 The Geopolitical War8 The Geopolitical WarThe Geopolitical WarChapter 7: US-China Relations and Wars2020-10-18JournalOver the next 5-10 years, in addition to there being the decouplings\[3\] in other areas, we will be seeing which countries align themselves with each of these leading powers.  Beyond money and military power, how China and the US interact with other countries (i.e., how they use their soft powers) will influence how these alliances will be made—i.e., style and values will matter.  For example, over the last few years I have heard leaders around the world describe both countries’ leaders as “brutal,” which is creating increased fears that they will be punished if they don’t do exactly what these two countries’ leaders want, and they don’t like it to the point of being driven into the other’s arms.  It will be important to see what these alliances will look like because throughout history the most powerful country is typically taken down by alliances of less powerful countries that are collectively stronger.  Perhaps the most interesting relationship to watch is between China and Russia.  Since the new world order began in 1945, among China, Russia, and the United States, two out of the three of them have allied to neutralize or overpower the third.  Russia and China each has a lot of what the other needs (e.g., natural resources and military equipment for China from Russia and financing for Russia from China).  Also, because Russia is militarily strong it would be a good military ally.  We can start to see this happening by watching whether the countries line up on the issues (e.g., whether to allow Huawei in) with the United States or China. Continue reading…